Marine insurance & war risk research
Research and articles by Jonas Osman Abdelghafour, Founder & CEO of Quantica Marine — on war-risk pricing, cargo exposure, P&I liability, reinsurance accumulation, ORSA and broker explainability.
Ten articles on how marine war risk reaches the insurance decision.
Current-event analysis for insurers, reinsurers, brokers, actuaries and chief risk officers.
The Week War Risk Changed Again: What the Latest Ship Attacks Mean for Marine Insurers
Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb ship attacks are reshaping marine war risk insurance — what changing threat levels mean for underwriting and pricing.
marine war risk insurance · Red Sea ship attacks · Bab el-Mandeb insurance
From Vessel to Voyage: Why War Hull Pricing Needs a Dynamic Risk View
Why marine hull war risk pricing must move from a static vessel view to a dynamic voyage risk assessment as conflict conditions change.
war hull pricing · marine hull war risk · voyage risk assessment
War Risk Is Not Just a Hull Problem: What Escalating Conflict Means for Cargo Insurers
War risk is not only a hull problem. How escalating maritime conflict affects marine cargo insurers, delay exposure and Red Sea cargo accumulation.
cargo war risk insurance · marine cargo geopolitical risk · Red Sea cargo insurance
When a War-Risk Event Becomes a Liability Event: Lessons for P&I and Marine Insurers
How a marine war-risk casualty escalates into crew, salvage, wreck removal and pollution liability — lessons for P&I clubs and marine insurers.
P&I war risk · marine liability geopolitical risk · oil spill war risk insurance
One Attack, Hundreds of Policies: The Reinsurance Accumulation Problem in Maritime Conflict
One attack, hundreds of policies. How chokepoint conflict creates correlated marine reinsurance accumulation and what cedants should measure.
marine reinsurance war risk · war risk accumulation · marine portfolio aggregation
From Geopolitical Event to Technical Price: The New Challenge for Marine Pricing Actuaries
Translating a geopolitical event into a technical price: expected loss, volatility loading, capital cost and uncertainty for marine pricing actuaries.
marine war risk pricing actuary · technical pricing marine insurance · geopolitical risk pricing
Your Vessels May Be Diversified. Your War Risk May Not Be.
Your vessels may be diversified while your war risk is not. How to find geopolitical concentration hiding inside a marine insurance portfolio.
marine accumulation risk · marine portfolio risk · geopolitical concentration insurance
From Red Sea Attack to ORSA: How Marine Geopolitical Risk Reaches the Insurer's Balance Sheet
How marine geopolitical risk travels from a Red Sea attack to the insurer's ORSA, stress testing, capital and balance sheet.
marine ORSA geopolitical risk · insurance capital war risk · marine stress testing
Can Brokers Explain Why Today's War-Risk Price Changed?
Explainable war-risk additional premium: how marine brokers can evidence why today's price changed and support better placement conversations.
marine insurance broker war risk · war risk additional premium · explainable marine pricing
Marine War Risk Has Changed. The Insurance Decision Process Must Change With It.
Marine war risk is now dynamic. Why underwriting, pricing, reinsurance and capital teams need one consistent marine war-risk decision process.
marine war risk pricing engine · Quantica Marine · marine insurance analytics
Can War Risk Be Securitised? Testing the Feasibility of a Marine War-Risk ILS
Whether marine war risk can be transferred to insurance-linked securities investors — trigger design, exclusion history, modelling credibility and the conditions a war-risk ILS would need to clear.
war risk ILS · marine war risk securitisation · catastrophe bond war exclusion
Parametric Chokepoint Cover: Paying on Closure, Not on Damage
How parametric chokepoint structures for the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz and Suez can transfer trade-disruption risk to alternative capital — trigger metrics, payout ladders and basis risk.
parametric chokepoint insurance · trade disruption cover · parametric ILS shipping
Structuring a Marine Catastrophe Bond: From Exposure Data to Investor Package
A practical sequence for sponsors taking marine exposure to the ILS market — data readiness, peril definition, attachment and exhaustion, expected loss, and the investor documentation pack.
marine catastrophe bond · cat bond structuring · ILS sponsor guide
Climate-Risk ILS: Financing Flood and Coastal Resilience with Alternative Capital
How resilience bonds, parametric flood covers and climate-linked risk transfer channel institutional capital into coastal, port and flood exposure — and what investors need to see.
climate risk ILS · resilience bond · parametric flood insurance
Trigger Design and Basis Risk in Marine and Climate ILS
Indemnity, industry-loss, modelled-loss and parametric triggers compared for marine, war and climate perils — how to quantify basis risk before placement rather than after a loss.
ILS trigger design · basis risk assessment · parametric trigger
What ILS Investors Should Ask Before Taking Marine and Specialty Risk
An independent due-diligence checklist for ILS funds and institutional investors evaluating marine, war and climate transactions — model challenge, tail analysis and concentration testing.
ILS investor due diligence · second opinion cat bond · model challenge
Collateralised Reinsurance and Sidecars: Adding Marine Capacity Without Adding Balance Sheet
How marine and specialty insurers use collateralised reinsurance, sidecars and industry-loss warranties to expand capacity, manage volatility and access alternative capital.
collateralised reinsurance · reinsurance sidecar · industry loss warranty
Capital Treatment of ILS: Getting Credit for Risk Transfer Under Solvency II
How catastrophe bonds, parametric covers and collateralised reinsurance are recognised in the solvency capital requirement — risk-mitigation tests, basis risk treatment and ORSA documentation.
Solvency II ILS · risk mitigation recognition · capital relief catastrophe bond
Is War Risk Really Uncorrelated? Diversification Claims in Marine and Climate ILS
The diversification argument for adding marine, war and climate risk to an ILS portfolio — where correlation genuinely is low, and where hidden macro and market linkages appear.
ILS diversification · war risk correlation · specialty ILS allocation
Closing the Protection Gap: ILS for Ports, Fleets and Coastal Economies
How alternative capital, parametric covers and sovereign risk pools can narrow the uninsured gap for ports, fleets and coastal economies exposed to war, flood and storm risk.
protection gap insurance · sovereign parametric pool · disaster risk financing